WebRadio Decibel Amsterdam: Lion's AppleWatch

Tue, 09 Mar 2010 17:36:58 GMT

Apple posts surprise ad for iPad during the Oscars

Apple captured the attention of movie buffs and the entire film industry by publishing a new teaser commercial for the iPad during the Academy Awards presentation Sunday evening.

The new 30 second spot, backed by The Blue Van's catchy tune "There Goes My Love," races through a variety of iPad features.

It quickly demonstrates browsing through photo albums with finger gestures, then shows how to download ebooks from the new iBook Store and using the new full screen versions of Mobile Safari and Apple's Maps application based on Google's Map service (below).

It also highlights the expanded version of the iPhone OS' email app, iTunes media playback featuring the movie "Star Trek," and a subtle mention of page layout and word processing within Apple's multitouch version of iWork's Pages app.

The fast-paced new ad then flashes through a rapid sequence of other apps including Maps and iTunes album playback to finish with the iPad's April 3 launch date.

The ad is available on Apple's Web site

Steve Jobs' big night at the Oscars

He showed up to watch Pixar's "Up" win best-animated — and to air the first iPad ad

Kathryn Bigelow's Oscar triumph for the "Hurt Locker" may be the headline in Monday's papers, but for Apple (AAPL) fans the big news Sunday evening was Steve Jobs' appearance on the red carpet in a tuxedo.

"OMG, it's Steve Jobs! I'm the only one yelling at him!" tweeted marketing strategist Wayne Sutton, who grabbed a snapshot from across the carpet and quickly posted it on the Internet.

Jobs is no stranger to Hollywood, of course. He is Disney's (DIS) largest shareholder and is enmeshed in complex negotiations to get more films and TV shows on Apple's devices. He was on hand to watch "Up" win a best-animated-feature Oscar for Pixar — the fifth for the company he bought in 1986 and sold to Disney in 2006.

But Jobs is also something of a showman in his own right, and he knows how to take advantage of the massive TV audiences Hollywood's big nights can draw.

Four days after Jobs unveiled his new tablet computer, Steven Colbert hosted the Grammys with an iPad slyly tucked under his belt. And last night at the Academy Awards, two days after the April 3 ship date was announced, Apple aired its first iPad ad — three times, for those who watched the entire 3-hour-and-32-minute broadcast. (Some viewers in metropolitan New York may have missed the first one after Disney yanked ABC from 3.1 million Cablevision (CVC) homes in a bit of contract brinksmanship that was only resolved a quarter hour into the show.)

Below: The ad as it appears on Apple's YouTube page. The music is The Blue Van's "There Goes My Love"; the action seems to have been accelerated a bit at the end to make the device look even zippier than it is.

See also:

Fri, 05 Mar 2010 22:07:09 GMT

Now see -and hear- this...

Fri, 05 Mar 2010 21:46:38 GMT

Weather report... This was issued yesterday. AAPL today closed at 218.95 up +8.24 (3.91%)

Bulish Alert for Apple Inc

(AAPL) Market Intellisearch's proprietary predictive modeling system detected the beginning of a new bullish trend for Apple Inc.M.

Shares of AAPL closed at $210.71 in the previous trading session and opened today at $215.00. Apple Inc settled the day up $8.44 to $219.32 in the trading session. The day's trading range is between $214.63 and $219.70 respectively. On the volume side, 25,479,076 shares were traded which is greater than the average volume of 21,990,400 shares. Technical indicators for the stock indicate bullish price movement. AAPL is trading above the 50 day moving average and higher than the 200 day moving average. The technical momentum Relative Strengh Index indicator shows overbought conditions. The stock's 52 week low is $82.33 and 52 week high is $215.59.

Fri, 05 Mar 2010 14:36:22 GMT

Cramer: AAPL's upside potential

In his "Mad Money" show, Jim Cramer said this is the best time to buy Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), as momentum in its shares will start with the launch date of the iPad drawing near. Apple will start its advertising campaign for the new device next week. According to Cramer, consumer spending is on the rise and the new device will find buyers easily. With retailers like Target (NYSE: TGT) and Coach (NYSE: COH) experiencing strong earnings, Jim does not see any reason for AAPL to be an exception. Although AAPL is trading just $4 short of its 52-week high, it does not seem too risky to recommend the stock as it is set to go higher.

Jim pointed out that Apple currently has $43 per share of cash on its balance sheet. Moreover, it is trading at just 13 times its expected 2011 earnings, which is similar to the multiple at which Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) are trading. But, these two companies do not have the iPad, the iPhone or the iPod to boast of.

Thu, 04 Mar 2010 15:48:22 GMT

Apple is Fortune's 'most admired' for the third year in a row

Steve Jobs' company wins the annual industry poll by the highest margin ever

It's Apple by a landslide.

For the third time running, Apple Inc. has been named the most admired company in the world in Fortune's annual ranking.

Moreover, in a poll of 4,200 executives, directors and industry analysts it was voted No. 1 by the highest margin ever.

"What makes Apple so admired?"; asks Christopher Tkaczyk in Apple's write-up. - Product, product, product. This is the company that changed the way we do everything from buy music to design products to engage with the world around us. Its track record for innovation and fierce consumer loyalty translates into tremendous respect across business' highest ranks."

To put the list in some perspective, Toyota was No. 7 — although voting was concluded before the company issued those massive recalls.

The top 10 companies on the list:

Apple (AAPL)
Google (GOOG)
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A)
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Amazon.com (AMZN)
Procter & Gamble (PG)
Toyota Motor (TM)
Goldman Sachs Group (GS)
Wal-Mart Stores (WMT)
Coca-Cola (KO)

The full list with rankings is available here. For an explanation of how it was compiled and why Apple came up No. 1, watch Leigh Gallagher's video here.

See also:

Wed, 03 Mar 2010 14:51:12 GMT

Monday's analyst 'rumour' (Peter Misek of Canaccord...) now officially FUD:

News: Foxconn: iPad Production On Track

Despite a report claiming significant delays in iPad production, the companies that are supplying parts for the multimedia tablet and ebook reader for Apple, say everything is on track for Foxconn to build up to 700,000 units in March.

Canaccord Adams analyst Peter Misek claimed at the beginning of March that Apple was looking at iPad shipments well below expectations, and that the company could delay the product launch for a month thanks to production delays. "An unspecified production problem at the iPad's manufacturer, Hon Hai Precision, will likely limit the launch region to the US and the number of units available to roughly 300K in the month of March," he said.

iPad parts suppliers, however, are now claiming they are delivering components on schedule and that the Foxconn plant that's building the units isn't seeing any delays, according to DigiTimes.

Wed, 03 Mar 2010 14:48:14 GMT

Apple is Best-Run Company in the US

NEW YORK -- Erick Maronak, manager of the Victory Large Cap Growth Fund(VFGAX Quote), says Apple(AAPL Quote) is the best-run company in the U.S., helping to make it the most attractive stock investment. Moronak: "Apple is hardly undiscovered yet not fully understood. Arguably the best-run company today, Apple has five segments in computing, consumer electronics, phones, software and retailing. Despite having excellent growth prospects, the company sells for a P/E multiple of 18, a cash flow multiple of 10, has $40 billion in cash and equivalents and no debt. Our view is that the recently announced iPad will sell well and that the next generation of phones will be a big boost to earnings."

Fri, 26 Feb 2010 17:58:58 GMT

Apple: 3 paths to $325+ per share

A Morgan Stanley analyst offers one scenario where AAPL could hit $435 by 2012

Click to enlarge. Source: Morgan Stanley

In a report to clients issued Friday, Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty offered one of her patented risk-reward snapshots of Apple (AAPL), this one even more optimistic than the last, thanks to what she sees as two new catalysts:

The iPad launch in March. Huberty is anticipating unit sales of 6 million in calendar 2010, considerably higher than the Street's consensus of 3-4 million
New iPhones in June. She's expecting new models that offer "both a lower total cost of ownership and new functionality, potentially including gesture-based technology"

Huberty offers her usual three scenarios — bull, base and bear — but leans heavily toward the bull, describing three paths to share prices as much as 115% above Apple's closing price Thursday of $202 per share.

Her three "bull scenario" paths:

Broader global carrier distribution gives Apple a 10% share of the total global handset market (not just smartphones) by fiscal 2012. By her math: 12 times the iPhone's fiscal 2012 EPS of $32 + 10 times Apple's core EPS of $5 = $435 per share.
Lower-end device and/or service plans give Apple 15% of the global handset market share and an average carrier subsidy of $200 per unit. 12 x fiscal 2012 iPhone EPS of $25 + 10 x core EPS of $5 = $358/share.
The iPhone sells unsubsidized, broadening Apple[base ']s TAM (total addressable market) and placing it in a position to grab 33% of the worldwide handset market. 12 x fiscal 2012 iPhone EPS of $23 + 10 x core EPS of $5 = $325/share.

Huberty's less optimistic scenarios are still pretty rosy.

Base case scenario: $250/share. Broader iPhone distribution doubles market share by fiscal 2012. Apple sells 6 million iPads and adds $1 to its EPS of $13.20 in calendar 2010. Multiple of 19x, which is the low-end of Apple's historical range.
Bear case scenario: $180/share. iPhone shipments and gross margins come under pressure due to carrier subsidy pushback. iPhone units rise to 35M units in calendar 2010 but iPhone gross margins fall closer to 50%. Market multiple on EPS of $12.

Fri, 26 Feb 2010 13:16:41 GMT

Apple reveals plans to open 25 retail stores in China

At Apple's annual shareholders meeting at its campus in Cupertino, Calif., Thursday, the company revealed it intends to open 25 stores in the nation of China.

Though the press was barred from covering Thursday's event live, Philip Elmer-DeWitt of Fortune Brainstorm Tech provided updates from the annual meeting. (see article below)

Apple will build more stores in China soon, as Ron Johnson, senior vice president of retail, announced the plans for expansion in the nation of over 1 billion. Last month, Apple executives revealed they are more focused on building the company's brand in China than they are about achieving blockbuster sales as they attempt to crack the foreign market.

The company's first Chinese store opened in 2008, prior to the Olympic games in Beijing. Plans for the second store, which will employ a classic Chinese design, were revealed last summer.

Apple has sold more than 200,000 iPhones in China since the handset debuted last fall. Some have said that a pre-paid option would be more acceptable to consumers in the nation, and could catapult overall sales up to 10 million.

Early this month, Apple's business presence in China came under scrutiny from U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin. Apple, along with 30 other technology companies, was asked to provide information on its human rights practices in the country, particularly as they pertain to freedom of expression and privacy.

Apple Store Sanlitun in Beijing, China

Fri, 26 Feb 2010 12:58:13 GMT

Inside Apple's shareholders meeting

The press, as usual, was barred from bringing communication devices into the Apple (AAPL) shareholders meeting that began at 1 p.m. EST (10 a.m. PST) Thursday.

But, as often happens, word is leaking out despite the blackout thanks to iPhones in the hands of shareholders who shall go unnamed. We'll post their dispatches (all times EST) as they come in.

12:37 Just going in to mtg hall … Said hello to [Roughly Drafted's] Daniel Eran Dilger. [CNBC's] Jim Goldman is on scene… I'll try to say hi after the mtg. Security is very prominent

12:59 Board now taking their seats [Al] Gore, [Andrea] Jung and [Bill] Campbell all in the house. Now Apple mgmt. [Steve] Jobs in the house kicking off the mtg

1:00: Jobs looks good!

1:08 Voting and formalities … Yawn. Shelton Ehrlich now protesting Al Gore glaciers are not melting! Another shareholder stands in support of Gore to resounding applause

1:13 Sustainability proposal now on stage. Environmental groups pushing for an even greener Apple

1:21 The ever entertaining Shelton Ehrlich at the mike again calling environmental movement a new religion and sustainability proposal should be voted down. The environmentalists are not happy w/Ehrlich and they are here in force grabbbing the mike to counter Ehrlich

1:27 Sustainability proposal voted down by shareholders. Steve back on stage with [COO] Tim Cook and [CFO] Peter Oppenheimer. Shareholder says very glad to have Jobs health and back! big applause! Jobs thanks Tim Cook for his stewardship

1:43 Twenty five Apple Stores planned for China over next 2 years [Ed note: This is material news.]

1:47 [Unnamed shareholder] grabbed the mike. Thanked Tim Cook for his presentation at Goldman Sachs Tech Conference. Thanked [Senior VP] Ron Johnson for his stores and China plans. Then requested that the board meet and authorize a share buyback. Steve thanked [shareholder] for the input

1:50 Steve answering vast majority of Qs … He is looking and sounding in fine form!

1:54 Steve is as feisty as ever (suggesting that questioners come to an actual question) and in good humor!

2:03 Shareholder says Apple needs more women on Apple's board … Thanks and applauds [Avon CEO] Andrea Jung and asks if Tipper Gore can join the board

2:03 [Reuters is reporting that Jobs told shareholders that the company's $40 billion cash balance offered it more flexibility and security, and that a dividend or stock split would not change its value. He said the company is now big enough that it had to "think big" to move the needle. Bloomberg reports it slightly differently: "Apple is holding onto cash to take 'big, bold' risks, Jobs said."]

2:06 [Apple's shares moved briefly into positive territory, having been down more than 1% most of the day, after CNBC said Apple was considering a 4-for-1 stock split, citing "market rumors."]

[The Wall Street Journal is reporting that when asked about Eric Schmidt (Google's CEO who left Apple's board last summer), Jobs defended him: "Eric Schmidt conducted himself appropriately and recused himself on matters that might involve conflict."]

2:08 In response to more environmentalists' Qs, Jobs is very cogently and passionately defending Apple's environmental record. Another shareholder then asked a longwinded Q about what Apple/Jobs fears. "What keeps you awake at night?" … Jobs deadpans: "Shareholders meetings." Audience erupts in laughter

2:12 iPhone exclusivity question (Verizon): No comment… Not even a hint

2:19 Meeting winding down. Jobs cracking jokes … In total charge of the meeting, now over

That's a wrap.

CNBC's Jim Goldman filed a video report shortly before 4 p.m. that included this quote from Jobs on why Apple keeps so much cash on hand: "We want to take risks, technical risks … We want to know that the ground is still beneath us when we jump."

Apple shares closed at $202, up 1.34 points (0.67%) on a day that the Dow fell 0.51%.

Wed, 24 Feb 2010 14:32:46 GMT

Audio: Tim Cook talking about Apple.

Steve Jobs' second-in-command on AT&T, the TV business and Apple's "hubris"

Cook and Jobs

Tim Cook, Apple's (AAPL) chief operating officer and the company's envoy to the business world, made his third appearance at a Goldman Sachs' (GS) technology conference Tuesday. Among the highlights of his wide-ranging Q&A:

On TV: Apple has no interest in the TV market; Apple TV is still a hobby, but his "gut" tells him that there's something there
On the Mac: The Mac has outgrown the market for 20 of the last 21 quarters. It doesn't take market growth for Apple to grow, they just have to convince Windows users to switch.
On the iPad: Has been using one for the last six months or so. Can't wait to start shipping it.
On netbooks: People were interested in the price, and then they got them home and asked themselves "why did I buy this?"

On AT&T (T): The advantage of sticking with a single carrier is simplicity and the ability to innovate. In other countries, where customers have a "sticky" relationship with their carrier, Apple can sell more units by going to multiple carriers
On Apple Stores: Slowed down with the recession and waited for prime real estate properties to become available; now turning up the dial and planning to open nearly 50 stores this year
On acquisitions: "We don't let our money burn a hole in our pocket." Buys companies for technology and talent; have looked at large companies but haven't found a good fit.
On size and market share: "We have never been about being the biggest. We've always been about making the best products." Not interested in having the highest market share or the highest revenue.
On Apple's focus: "We are the most focused company that I know of. We say 'no' to good ideas every day in order to keep the amount of things we focus on very small." You could put all the products Apple sells on one table, yet it is a $40 billion dollar company.
On Apple's hubris: "This hubris you talk about comes to companies that are so successful and then decide that their sole goal in life is to get bigger. And they start adding this and that and this and that. I can tell you that the management team at Apple would never let that happen."

You can get the audio webcast from Goldman Sachs here.

See also:

Wed, 24 Feb 2010 14:27:39 GMT

Steve Jobs is 55.

Credit: Stanford University

Wednesday, Feb. 24, is Steve Jobs' birthday.

He turns 55.

As we did last year, we'd like to celebrate this personal milestone by re-posting what may be the most personal public speech this intensely private man has ever made: his commencement address to the Stanford University class of 2005.

If you haven't seen it or haven't heard it recently we give you Apple's (AAPL) CEO on life, death and calligraphy.

[base ']ÄúToday I want to tell you three stories from my life. That's it. No big deal. Just three stories'

Below the fold, 15 minutes, via YouTube:

The transcript is available here.

Tue, 23 Feb 2010 18:58:06 GMT

Apple iPad demand exceeding pre-launch iPhone buzz?. A new survey has found that 13 percent of respondents are likely to buy Apple's forthcoming iPad, a number greater than the 9 percent who planned to purchase an iPhone before its launch in 2007.

Wed, 17 Feb 2010 00:40:01 GMT

Apple's Mac sales up 36% in January, on pace for record 2.8 million quarter. The latest NPD sales data shows Mac sales increased 36 percent year-over-year in the month of January...

Tue, 16 Feb 2010 16:02:53 GMT

AAPL Could Be On the Move

AAPL could be on the move today and is now at $202.36, up $1.98 (0.99%) on volume of 3,059,632 shares traded. Over the last 52 weeks the stock has ranged from a low of $82.33 to a high of $215.59. AAPL was covered in a was covered in a Vic Wisemann report today. To read the report, go to www.marketintelligencecenter.com/vw021610. Apple stock has been showing support around $193.03 and resistance in the $205.31 range. Technical indicators for the stock are bullish and S&P gives AAPL a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy ranking. If you are looking for a hedged play on AAPL the stock seems like it could be a candidate for an April out-of-the-money bull-put credit spread below the 180 range.

Fri, 12 Feb 2010 23:39:02 GMT

Apple: Needham Ups Target On Strong iPhone, Mac Sales; The Path To 25% Smart Phone Market Share

Needham analyst Charlie Wolf this morning upped his price target on Buy-rated Apple (AAPL) to $280, from $235, noting that Mac and iPhone sales are materially higher than when he made his last attempt to value the company back in September. He also thinks the iPad should make a material contribution to the company’s valuation.

As part of his valuation process, Wolf offers some eye-opening long-term sales forecasts for Apple products, with a startling vision of how big iPhone sales can get, in particular:

Here’s a look at Wolf’s 10-year forecast for iPhone unit sales:

2009: 25.5 million units (actual)
2010: 37.2 million
2011: 48.5 million
2012: 60.0 million
2013: 72.4 million
2014: 85.4 million
2015: 98.2 million
2016: 109.3 million
2017: 120.6 million
2018: 131.7 million
2019: 142.5 million

The final year number assumes the global smart phone market grows from 170.2 million units in 2009 to 569.8 million in 2019, and that Apple’s market share grows from 15% to 25%.

He sees a steady ramp in iPad sales as well, forecasting unit sales of 2 million this year, 6 million in 2011, and 9 million in 2012, reaching 19.8 million in 2019.

Wolf sees Mac ships growing from 9.5 million units this year to 24.9 million in 2019.

On the other hand, he expects iPod sales to fall to fall from 53.2 million this year to 35.5 million in 2019.

Apple today is up $1.71, or 0.86%, to $200.38.

Wed, 10 Feb 2010 13:53:09 GMT

Norwegian resellers forced to halt Apple iPad pre-orders due to 'crazy interest'. "Apple is facing the rare incident of an advance sellout this week as a number of Norwegian resellers have had to stop their pre-order programs for the iPad. Eplehuset (Apple House) has told its customers that 'crazy interest' has led it to stop sales in advance. Fellow Apple reseller Humac has also quietly pulled the iPad, as it still has a category but no longer has active product pages," Electronista reports. "It's believed that the sites took thousands of advance orders for the touchscreen device and that, unusually, the largest portion of orders skew heavily towards the more expensive 64GB iPad with 3G," Electronista reports

Wed, 10 Feb 2010 13:42:18 GMT

Apple's share of U.S. smartphone market grows to 25% - study. A strong holiday quarter helped to grow Apple's share of the U.S. smartphone market by 1.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009, giving the iPhone a 25.3 percent share of users, according to a new report.

Wed, 10 Feb 2010 13:37:03 GMT

Disney CEO says iPad is game changer

NEW YORK (AFP) - Walt Disney Co. president and chief executive Robert Iger said Tuesday that Apple's new iPad tablet computer may prove to be a "game changer" for the entertainment and media industry. "We find that the iPad has a lot of potential," Iger said in a conference call after Disney announced a first-quarter net profit of 844 million dollars, virtually unchanged from a year ago. "It could be a game changer in terms of enabling us to create essentially new forms of content," Iger said. "It will be a great device to play games and watch videos because of the quality of the screen.

Tue, 09 Feb 2010 21:32:23 GMT

Bespoke Investment Group:

Has Apple Found a Base?

As shown in the chart below, Apple (AAPL) has bounced a bit over the past two days. This bounce occurred right after the stock hit the bottom of its trading range channel that it has been in for a few months now. If the stock can take out its highs from last Wednesday, it clears the way for a move back to the top of its range.

Sun, 07 Feb 2010 20:31:04 GMT

Apple overtaking Microsoft in cash, how Steve Jobs 'smoked' competition with iTunes

Look at that chart up there - it shows the total cash and short term investments of tech companies and comes to us from the Silicon Valley Insider. Isn't it interesting to see the company people rejected as a spent force in the mid-to-late 90's (Apple) now has more cash in hand than Google or Intel and is rapidly moving to eclipse Microsoft.

Only another half billion dollars or so and Apple will be a bigger company by cash on hand than Microsoft.

How did we get here? There's a lot been said on reports that Microsoft's dated competitive corporate infrastructure and its focus on internal competition is partly to blame.

We also like the look of this Groklaw report here, which points out that all the way down the line since Steve Jobs return to Apple, Microsoft execs felt they had been "smoked".

The report publishes a whole host of internal Microsoft emails from 2003 when the company reeled in shock at Apple's launch of iTunes.

Here's what Bill Gates really had to say about Apple's iTunes Store in 2003.

"Steve Jobs ability to focus in on a few things that count, get people who get user interface right and market things as revolutionary are amazing things.
"This time somehow he has applied his talents in getting a better Licensing deal than anyone else has gotten for music.
"This is very strange to me. The music companies own operations offer a service that is truly unfriendly to the user and has been reviewed that way consistently."

He added in a somewhat visionary moment, "I am not saying this strangeness means we messed up - at least if we did so did Real and Pressplay and Musicnet and basically everyone else." (Editor's note, yep. so they did.)

Jim Allchin's response is charming:

"1. How did they get the music companies to go along?
2. We were smoked.
jim"

Tue, 02 Feb 2010 12:40:31 GMT

AAPL upgraded by Barclays

Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) is higher by +0.32% in pre-market trade after analysts at Barclays issued an analyst upgrade on the stock. Barclays Capital set a higher price target up to 285 on the stock.

Sat, 30 Jan 2010 12:45:19 GMT

Jim Goldman: Today's plunge makes no sense.

Shorts Might be Short-sighted on Apple

Betting against Apple has become a kind of bloodsport on Wall Street, and following the company's earnings earlier this week, it bears repeating just how stellar these numbers were, and how extraordinary the opportunities are that lay ahead for this company.

All of which apparently completely disregarded on Wall Street today.

So what's happening? As near as I can tell, with the lukewarm reviews of the iPad, and so much wait-and-see going on, some investors might be worried that the tremendous revenue stream they were counting on may not be nearly as robust as they hoped.

But wait a second, it's not like Apple is Palm or something. iPad might be exciting, and important, and intriguing, and someday even compelling, but while we wonder and wait, Apple's got plenty of other ways of making money.

Mac sales last quarter were tremendous: 3.36 million Macs sold soundly beat estimates. The 21 million iPods contributed to the Steve Jobs factoid earlier this week that Apple has now sold 250 million of these things. iPhone might have been a little light, sure, but 8.7 million is nothing to sneeze at, and what other company can boast of a 100 percent jump in year over year sales for such a key product line?

Earlier this week, when AT&T said it activated 100,000 fewer iPhones then the previous quarter, there was instant worry that there was some kind of slowdown, that somehow that was some kind of surprise. But didn't we get that news earlier when Apple itself told us of its iPhone unit sales? Surprise? What surprise?

Today, Apple shares are in wholesale retreat. So apparently investors have turned up their noses at the company's monumentally huge cash position, or its enviable retail strategy with 284 stores now, and an eye-popping 50 million visitors last quarter. Yes, you read that correctly. (As a comparison Disneyland, hosts something like 25 million visitors a year)

But you know all this. Yet these shares continue to tumble to the tune of a 4 percent haircut as of this writing on very heavy volume. I heard some analysts talking about the lack of catalysts left in the Apple playbook, now that we have an iPad to consider. The classic of buying mystery and selling history.

Come on. If Apple were somehow trading at 20 (Yahoo's trading at 25x), 30 (Amazon's at 34x) or 40 times next year's earnings, then I'd understand a little pullback, a little taking-money-from-the-table. But Apple is instead at 15 times next year's earnings, meaning it's not only affordable, it's downright cheap when you consider this thing will do $11 or $12 a share in earnings for its fiscal 2010. And you know all that, too.

I'm no Pollyanna, and I don't want merely to accentuate the positive. But facts are facts. Fundamentals are fundamentals. Digital music, digital video, digital books, apps, Macs, iPods, iPhones, retail, software, and yes, the iPad.

Unlike Palm , or even Research in Motion for that matter, when one thing isn't working for Apple, it's got five or six other things that are. It isn't a zero sum game for these guys. Over at its peers in the market place, if the Pre is a bust, so is Palm, plain and simple.

If BlackBerrys stop selling, or slow down significantly, RIM should get creamed. They don't have a safety net woven with the golden silk of so many compelling revenue streams. Apple does. If there are concerns over early sales about the iPad, that should do nothing to color the overall Apple story.

(Kind of like everyone going nuts that the iPad would be an Amazon Kindle killer, and Amazon shares began to quiver because of it. The Kindle is what, 5 percent of Amazon's overall revenue? Come on people, a little perspective here!)

After earnings on Monday, we witnessed a pretty significant upgrade parade on Wall Street. So many targets at $265, $275 or higher. Broad market sentiment might have changed for one reason or another this week, but Apple's fundamentals certainly haven't. Today's plunge makes no sense.

Sat, 30 Jan 2010 12:43:19 GMT

Coming soon: 4-5 million Chinese iPhones

A survey of high-end Chinese buyers suggests the Street has underestimated demand

Photo: iPhonAsia.com

Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty — a long-time Apple (AAPL) bear who seems to have switched her drink to Kool-Aid — issued an optimistic report Friday about the Chinese market for iPhones. It includes scenarios by which she sees Apple's share price hitting $325 to $435 within a year.

(The stock closed at $199.29 Thursday, down more than 4% for the day, and then fell another 3.36% on Friday.)

Central to Huberty's "Bull Case" is a scenario in which iPhone sales — which got off to a famously disappointing start in China — hit a cruising speed of 4-5 million units per year and then accelerate dramatically when and if Apple introduces a lower-cost phone with a pre-paid plan.

Her findings are not that different from those of other China watchers, but they are probably based on better data — the results of a survey of 1,050 Chinese consumers representing what calls "the core iPhone addressable market in China."

Huberty's key findings:

The current installed base of unlocked iPhones in China (2 million) is already similar to the largest European and Asian countries, pointing to strong underlying demand at the high-end of market.
We see an attractive addressable market in China of 50 million consumers, with strong interest in smartphones and the Apple brand.
The survey indicates the potential for Apple to sell 4-5 million units annually in China over time.
Importantly, we believe there is an opportunity for Apple to increase demand by 100%+ by introducing a lower-cost, pre-paid device and still generate 45-50% gross margins.

The report is supported by an array of charts, graphs and spreadsheets focused on that addressable Chinese market — a population of about 50 million people (4% of the population) with an annual income over $20,000 and an average cellphone bill of $22 per month.

It's a market, she maintains, comparable to the U.K. (76 million) and Spain (53 million) — with a difference:

"Importantly," she writes, "this 50M person addressable market has high smartphone and Apple product penetration rates relative to the market as a whole, according to our survey. We believe the survey responses indicate the interest and affinity for smartphones and the Apple brand among the high-end segment of the population in China."

Below: A selection of those supporting diagrams.

Source: Morgan Stanley

See also:

Fri, 29 Jan 2010 13:39:39 GMT

Barclays Capital ups Apple price target to $285

Barclays Capital has upped their price target on Apple Inc. (AAPL) to $285, saying the company's new iPad is "priced to move."

In terms of features and services, Barclays' analysts believe the iPad's launch was largely in line with expectations. However, the pricing is much more attractive than analysts expected and clearly shows Apple's desire for mass market appeal. Even accounting for potential cannibalization of other products, Barclays' analysts believe iPad adds at least $1.00 in EPS and $20 plus in value to Apple's shares. Barclays Capital reiterates their "Overweight" rating on Apple.

Barclays' analysts are raising estimates to include iPad and related revenues, partially offset by some cannibalization of other devices. The firm estimates that Apple will ship 2.9 million devices in FY10 and 7.3 million in FY11.

MacDailyNews Take: Those iPad unit shipment estimates are too low.

Barclays estimates fiscal Q2 EPS of $2.32 (up from $2.29) on 29% year-over-year revenue growth to $11.74B (from $11.6B). For FY10, the firms now estimates EPS of $12.00 (from $11.60) on 31% YOY revenue growth to $56.1B (up from $54.5B). For FY11 Barclays estimates EPS of $13.75 (from $12.75) on 15% YOY revenue growth to $64.5B (up from $60.2B).

Given higher estimates, Barclays Capital's new price target for Apple Inc. (AAPL) is $285 based on 17x their new FY11 EPS estimate of $13.75 excluding interest income ($0.15) while adding $51 forward 12-month cash.