Lion's AppleWatch

	vrijdag, 2 juli 2010

Markets at the crossroads
...wanna see something really scary...?
What Will Markets Do in the Near Term?
and:
what this could mean to AAPL 2:29:08 PM

Rumors, bashing, fake emails... that's what happens when you sell almost 2 million smartphones in 2 days... ;)
Apple says Steve Jobs emails on iPhone 4 reception were faked
A top Apple spokesperson has emphatically denied that Steve Jobs was the author of a series of comments in an email exchange regarding iPhone 4 reception.

The comments, published earlier today by Boy Genius Report, attributed a series of email-based replies to Jobs, including the responses:

"No, you are getting all worked up over a few days of rumors. Calm down."

"You are most likely in an area with very low signal strength."

"You may be working from bad data. Not your fault. Stay tuned. We are working on it."

"Retire, relax, enjoy your family. It is just a phone. Not worth it."

After the report was picked up and spread by various blogs, BGR corrected it, saying the last line was actually written by the customer, and not Jobs.

Shortly after the edit was made, Philip Elmer-DeWitt of the Fortune Apple 2.0 blog reported that a top Apple public relations spokesperson, speaking on the record, "emphatically denied" that Steve Jobs "was the author of any of these statements."

AppleInsider had previously reported that the source of the email exchange had originally offered the emails as a story, "for sale," without asking for a specific price.

The incident highlights an emerging trend where blog sites quickly publish alleged email conversations with Apple's chief executive under "exclusive" headlines designed to attract attention, with little or no effort made to either verify or or qualify the emails as potentially fake.

Many reports of email-based exchanges describe "verifying email headers," which is a completely unreliable method of determining the legitimacy of a purported exchange. Email headers are trivial to fake, and even a real email exchange could be edited afterward without any indication in the email headers or elsewhere. 1:50:54 PM

WE REPEAT (from June 7): Thinking of buying (more) AAPL? You should, it's going well over 300. But you may want to wait for a lower entry...
Read carefully, Applewatch thinks this scenario is likely to happen in the coming days/weeks...
AAPL-Short term 'Sell' alert on APPLE
Global Chart Analysis has issued a short term sell alert on apple.
So far Apple is showing an unfavorable market response to their new iPhone launch and it looks like the ipad excitement may have run it’s course over the short term as well. Apple may also face an antitrust suit with their advertising approach which could ignite even more profit taking. We should also mention the recent security breach on their new ipads which affected 110,000 ipads. Yes these should all be short term issues for apple and nothing they can’t take care of, but we see these issues taking the upside momentum out of the stock and potentially knocking the stock down as much as 20%. This profit taking could be fast and aggressive so those shorter term holders should beware.

Click to enlarge chart

On the technical side
We are seeing increasingly aggressive selling in AAPL. AAPL has now broken multiple support levels including its 21 and 50 day moving averages as well as its bullish wedge.
This sell-off has some heavy volume to go along with it so this sell-off is for real.

What to look at now:
We do see AAPL as short term stretched to the downside, so we forecast a run back up into its 50 day moving average level before finding another wave of sellers which should then force the stock lower. If AAPL is strong enough to retake and hold its 50 day moving average level, we would take it off our 'Sell' watch list. If this level can't be retaken and instead turns into resistance, we will officially move AAPL from our sell watch list and move it to our 'Sell' list.

Price Target:
We see AAPL selling off to the $225-$231 level followed by the $211 level. There is also the potential for AAPL to retest its flash crash lows of $199. This would be close to 20% move lower, where it should finally find plenty of support.
1:03:03 PM

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