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"Attempting to analyze Apple through the general mediocrity of the industry they're part of, is just not the way to look at Apple..."

  donderdag, 25 maart 2010

Analyst: Apple's iPhone target market has huge headroom, can expand over 7x

"The market for the Apple iPhone has a long, long way to grow," Eric Savitz reports for Barron's. "That's the basic conclusion of a report today from Bernstein Research analyst Toni Sacconaghi on the ultimate addressable market for the phone."

"Sacconaghi estimates that the iPhone has won about 40% market share among smart phones sold at carriers who distribute the device," Savitz reports.

"At the moment, the iPhone is sold through 143 carriers, in 89 countries; together he estimates that they sold 360 million phones, of which 64 million were smart phones - which is to say that they required a data plan. Since Apple sold 25 million phones in calendar 2009, that gets you to 39% market share among the company's carrier partners."

"With that kind of market share, he says, it will be 'increasingly difficult' for Apple to boost its share of the smart phone market among current carriers," Savitz reports. "On the other hand, he estimates that Apple can more than double its addressable market by expanding to new carriers that don't sell the iPhone yet.

And he says they can triple the addressable market by offering a device that does not require a data plan. Together, Sacconaghi says, those two opportunities can boost the addressable market to 557 million units, or more than 7x the current level."

Full article here. 8:06:19 PM    

Analyst Raises iPad Estimates, Ups AAPL Target to $265

BMO analyst Keith Bachman has raised his iPad sales estimates for 2011 to 7.2 million units -a 30.9% increase- and he told clients that his estimates of 2.5 million units for 2010 may prove to be conservative.

Based on this as well as increased Mac sales and the effects of an iPhone refresh this Summer, the analyst raised his price target for AAPL to $265 per share, up from $250.

Fortune reported the research note to clients, and said that Mr. Bachman[base ']s reasoning revolves around several contributing factors. For one thing, he thinks that Apple[base ']s iPad could conceivably capture as much as 11% of the existing Wintel and Linux netbook market.

At 40 million units in 2010, that would represent a sizable chunk of unit sales for Apple.

To that end, he noted that cheap netbooks running Microsoft Windows 7 take two minutes to boot up, and that people who pick up or try the iPad will likely consider it substantially more responsive.

He also said that Apple should be able to grab 35% to 40% of the tablet and e-reader market, calling it a cinch. His estimates are that the tablet market will be 17 to 22 million units in 2011 and that the e-reader market will see 5 million units in 2011.

All combined, he sees Apple moving 7.2 million iPads in 2011.

In the early afternoon trading session, shares in Apple Inc. are trading higher at $230.29 per share, higher by $0.92 (+0.40%), on moderate volume.

That's a record high today -again. Forecast numbers for sales in the tech companies traditional strength, Macs, have been up recently. Combine that with the growing buzz on forecast numbers for the recently announced iPad, and investors are flocking to the company of cool. BMO Capital Markets has listed the stock as 'Outperform', causing a further boost to the price level. 7:42:32 PM    




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