"Attempting to analyze Apple through the general mediocrity of the industry they're part of, is just not the way to look at Apple..."   Saturday, February 13, 2010 Apple: Needham Ups Target On Strong iPhone, Mac Sales; The Path To 25% Smart Phone Market Share Needham analyst Charlie Wolf this morning upped his price target on Buy-rated Apple (AAPL) to $280, from $235, noting that Mac and iPhone sales are materially higher than when he made his last attempt to value the company back in September. He also thinks the iPad should make a material contribution to the company’s valuation. As part of his valuation process, Wolf offers some eye-opening long-term sales forecasts for Apple products, with a startling vision of how big iPhone sales can get, in particular: Here’s a look at Wolf’s 10-year forecast for iPhone unit sales: 2009: 25.5 million units (actual) 2010: 37.2 million 2011: 48.5 million 2012: 60.0 million 2013: 72.4 million 2014: 85.4 million 2015: 98.2 million 2016: 109.3 million 2017: 120.6 million 2018: 131.7 million 2019: 142.5 million The final year number assumes the global smart phone market grows from 170.2 million units in 2009 to 569.8 million in 2019, and that Apple’s market share grows from 15% to 25%. He sees a steady ramp in iPad sales as well, forecasting unit sales of 2 million this year, 6 million in 2011, and 9 million in 2012, reaching 19.8 million in 2019. Wolf sees Mac ships growing from 9.5 million units this year to 24.9 million in 2019. On the other hand, he expects iPod sales to fall to fall from 53.2 million this year to 35.5 million in 2019. Apple today is up $1.71, or 0.86%, to $200.38. 12:39:02 AM     © Copyright 2010 Lion's AppleWatch

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