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  Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Piper Jaffray ups Apple estimates across the board; 2.8m Macs, 11m iPods, 5m iPhones this quarter

In a note to clients today, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster raised estimates on Apple (AAPL) across the board:

  •  Estimates for September to EPS of $1.17 vs. Street at $1.11, and revenue of $8.37b vs. Street at $8.07b: These revisions are based on the most recent NPD growth rates; we are incrementally more confident in Sept. quarter Mac, iPod and iPhone units.

  • 2.8 million Mac units (vs. 2.5m previously): Through the first two months of the Sept. quarter (July and Aug.), Mac NPD data is up 32% y/y. In the month of July, NPD data was 43% y/y and in Aug. units were up 23% y/y. However, we note that Aug. was a tough comp, as a redesigned iMac was released in Aug-07. But even if we assume continued y/y growth of 23% in the month of Sept. (which we believe is conservative), the overall y/y growth rate for the full quarter would come in at 29%, implying 2.8m Macs in the Sept. quarter.

  • 11 million iPod units (vs. 10.8m previously): Through the first two months of the Sept. quarter (July and Aug.), iPod NPD data is up 16% y/y. If we assume continued y/y growth of 16% in the month of Sept., then factor in the average overshoot of 7% that NPD has had on actual iPod units over the last 8 quarters. These factors result in an overall growth rate of 9%, implying just over 11m iPods.

  • 5.0 million iPhone units (vs. 4.1m previously): In our upwardly revised model we have increased our iPhone unit estimate to 5m from 4.1m for the Sept. quarter. We are more comfortable with a 5m unit estimate given Apple sold over 1m units in the first three days of availability of the iPhone 3G (July 11-13).

    • Piper Jaffray maintains their "Buy" rating on AAPL ("Alpha List") with a $250 price target. 5:44:09 PM    

    Guess who is a PC too...

    4:18:55 PM    

    Adobe's CS4 Should Give Apple Sales a Boost.

    Yesterday Adobe (ADBE) announced a new version of its top-notch online design and editing software. Called Creative Suite 4 [CS 4], this much anticipated piece of software should make it easier to integrate dynamic content such as audio, video, and external information feeds, into Web site design.

    Adobe pretty much owns this market, having swallowed all the major competitors. And it's a pretty lucrative market, powering Adobe's impressive returns over recent years. For Apple shareholders, CS 4 should be good news. Every new Adobe CS update tends to require additional computing power, forcing the professional designers, artists and others who rely on these projects to buy newer, faster, better computers. 4:13:31 PM    



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