Lion's AppleWatch

	dinsdag, 24 augustus 2010

Impatient? Here's where we're at now:

Confused? Read this
'What if?' Planning for an Unpredictable Market.
What if this is just a bear market rally and we tumble another 30, 40, 50%?

What if the economy has bottomed, but things don’t really get better for years?
5:49:06 PM

dinsdag, 3 augustus 2010

Update on the Pesky Trading Range in Apple AAPL
I’ve received a few requests to update the chart of Apple (AAPL) which remains trapped within a multi-month sideways trading range.

Let’s take a look at the current daily chart and note the levels to watch for a breakout, along with trading strategies while price remains trapped in the range.

I last updated Apple (AAPL)’s chart on July 13th with the post:

“The Support Shelf and Trading Range to Watch in Apple AAPL” (below)

… which remains true to this day as price continued to trade within that range and bounce off the ’support shelf.’

What now? Not much is different!

We still have key overhead resistance at $265, and a price breakout above $265 sends the upper target immediately to retest the 2010 high at $275 – a $10 potential quick play.

There are two main levels of price support to watch, and they come in at the $245 and $240 levels as indicated with horizontal lines.

There’s nothing complex to the analysis – there doesn’t need to be. These are the levels that traders are watching (and trading) very closely, and a breakout through the upper resistance or down through lower support will certainly grab traders’ attention and positions.

However, while price remains “trapped” within the trading range between $245 and $265, the active trader can play “fade” trades or “range” trades within the context of a price test of the resistance at $265 and at the support at $245, placing a relatively close stop just beyond these levels in the event that price does break out.

In essence, if you’re putting on a trading position in Apple right now for anything longer than a day-trade, you’re essentially making a bet that price will hold these support or resistance levels and remain within the range (giving you profit if that’s true), or break out of the range, playing the breakout and range expansion move that will give you profit if price ejects from the range.

Monitor the price chart closely if trading within this range.

The earlier post from July 13th below:
The Support Shelf and Trading Range to Watch in AAPL
Jul 13, 2010: 12:46 PM CST
Apple Inc (AAPL) frequently receives a great deal of media attention on their recent iPhone and iPad gadgets.

However, their stock has been stagnating in a trading range between$240 and $270 since May.

There is a critical support area – particularly from the weekly chart – that traders should be keenly aware of, so let’s see these levels and the bigger picture with Apple’s stock.

First, the daily trading range:

As the daily chart shows, Apple has a clear overhead resistance boundary at the $265 per share level, despite the ‘bull trap’ spiking up to $275. .

Thus, Apple bulls have their alerts set at the $265 level as the upside breakout level to punch through.

The lower boundary actually is rising, as seen in the ascending trendline, which will make more sense as you view the weekly chart.

Volume has trailed lower during the consolidation phase, but given that it’s summer and stocks in general exhibit lower participation/volume during a trading range, this is nothing to be concerned with yet.

Remember that in a trading range, moving averages matter less, so look to the trendlines as more important indicators.

Now, let’s see why the lower trendline is rising and what makes that very important going forward:

Surprise! The stock is supporting exactly as expected on the rising 20 week EMA within the context of a rising uptrend.

As long as that continues to happen, Apple bulls can rest easily, expecting higher prices yet to come.

However, one should not have blinders or bias with any stock, so it’s worthwhile to highlight the negative momentum divergence that undercut the recent high as seen above.

That’s bearish. However, divergences are just conditions – price (and supply/demand) is key.

So, the structure and trend remains up, but traders/investors need to focus very closely going forward on the rising 20 EMA, currently situated at $244 per share.

If sellers push price under $240, we would expect a deeper retracement, perhaps all the way back to the rising 50 week EMA at $220, which would break price downwards from the daily trading range as seen above.

Those are your parameters to watch going forward: A break under $240 is a very bearish situation, though anything less than that keeps price in the prevailing uptrend, and a break above $265 then to new highs beyond $275 ($280 to be conservative) gives investors once again the ‘all clear’ in this stock.

Until then, watch the developing structure very closely.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
11:52:12 PM

dinsdag, 20 juli 2010

Again we strongly suggest you read this post, we believe we see this scenario playing out now.
So do we buy today? - We KNOW Apple's Q3 earnings will be great and the stock could/should jump.
OR are the forces of technical analysis, a greedy market and sh*tloads of FUD greater and will we be forced to touch AAPL's 200 MA (now at $ 222,83) before the road to new all time highs can be continued in the 2nd half of 2010...?

Today: AAPL Q3 earnings - after the bell
Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), the maker of the iPhone and iPad, will likely see some volatility, as the company will be reporting its quarterly corporate results today after the close.
Analysts expect profit to jump on strength of the iPad and iPhone 4 sales. Analysts on average expect the company to report a profit of $3.07 per share on revenue of $14.62 billion; a year ago Apple reported a profit of $2.01 a share and revenues of $8.34 billion.
In particular Oppenheimer expects Apple to post very strong second quarter results, but worry that the wave of negative publicity surrounding the new iPhone's wireless reception will continue to pressure its shares and potentially impact sales.
The firm maintained its Outperform rating, but trimmed estimates and target to $330 from $345. Apple shares fell more than 1% in pre-market trading. 3:03:50 PM

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