Lion's AppleWatch

Lion's AppleWatch -

"Attempting to analyze Apple through the general mediocrity of the industry they're part of, is just not the way to look at Apple..."

  maandag, 3 juni 2013

Why AAPL will be over 700 again - and why you should own it.

If You Bought An 'iWatch' From Apple, You'd Check it ~95 Times Per Day
(And That's Why Apple Is Going To Make A Boatload)

There have been multiple reports that Apple has a team of people working on making a computer for your wrist – a "smartwatch."

Some are already calling it the iWatch.

Perhaps you remain unconvinced about the merits of such an idea.

If that's the case, there's a chart you really need to see.

It's from Kleiner Perkins partner and former Internet analyst Mary Meeker's latest presentation on the state of the technology industry.

It shows what, exactly, the average smartphone user is looking for when he or she checks their phone ~150 times per day.

It looks like this:

Take a look at that chart, and do a quick mental experiment.

Tally up all the "checks" you would rather do by looking at a screen on your wrist rather than pulling a screen out of your pocket.

(You – or at least most people – would prefer to look at your wrist in every instance you could, right? That's why wrist-watches outsell pocket-watches, right?)

My tally is ~95.

When I highlighted every type of check that I could do on a watch that is wirelessly connected to a phone in my pocket, the result made the chart look like this:

You probably have some objections to my tally.

  • Messaging requires replying, and how do you do that on a watch?
  • Voice calling? Who is going talk to their watch?

It's true.

Some of these checks will, some of the time, result in users having to pull their phones out of their pocket to do something – respond to a text, answer the phone, or read a full-length news story.

But just as often, I can imagine looking at my watch and deciding to decline a call or not to read more about a news story.

As for replying to texts?

Siri is pretty awful, but one thing it is good for is taking spoken phrases like "OK period I'll be home soon period where do you want to go for dinner question mark" and turning them into legible text messages – "OK. I'll be home soon. Where do you want to go for dinner?"

As for phone calls, I'm sure that if you're wearing your headphones and have them plugged into your iPhone, you'll be able to tap "Accept" and begin talking. People will just wear their headphones more.

Even if you eliminate all or most of the voice call, messaging, and news checks from my tally, you still get ~50 checks per day.

For a lot of people, that's going to be enough usage to justify spending the $200 or $300 analyst Gene Munster believes Apple will charge for the watch.

Here's the other thing: All of the "checks" listed on Meeker's chart are smartphone specific. There are plenty of other things that smartwatches will be able to do that aren't listed, many of which I can't imagine yet.

One thing people around my office are already excited about is seeing what Apple can do turning the watch into a sensor like the Nike FuelBand or the Fitbit.

Point is? An iWatch will be very useful – and useful things sell by the boatload.

2:06:44 PM    

Apple Pushing to Complete Record Deals for Streaming Music Service Launch at WWDC

The New York Times reports that Apple is still hoping to launch its much-rumored streaming music service at its Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) next week, pressing to complete deals with record labels that would allow the company to announce the service.
Apple's service, a Pandora-like feature that would tailor streams of music to each user's taste, has been planned since at least last summer. But Apple has made little progress with record labels and music publishers, which have been seeking higher royalty rates and guaranteed minimum payments, according to these people, who spoke anonymously about the private talks.

While it is still at odds with some music companies over deal terms, Apple is said to be eager to get the licenses in time to unveil the service "nicknamed iRadio by the technology press" at its annual developers conference, which begins June 10 in San Francisco.
Two weeks ago, The Verge reported that Apple might be unable to launch the service at WWDC due to continued difficulties with the negotiations, but it seems that Apple may be making a strong last-minute effort to meet that goal.

Apple had previously signed a deal with Universal Music, the world's largest record label, and the Times indicates that Apple signed a deal with Warner Music Group this weekend. Negotiations with other labels and publishers are continuing.

Apple's streaming music service is said to be a free, ad-supported offering, with the labels reportedly seeking similar revenue rates to that seen from Pandora, although Apple is seeking more extensive licenses to provide more flexibility for users.

Update 7:08 PM: The Wall Street Journal has more on Apple's deal with Warner:
Under the deal, Apple will give Warner Music Group's publishing arm 10% of ad revenue " more than twice what Internet radio giant Pandora Media Inc. pays major music publishers. Warne's terms with Apple could pave the way for other major publishing deals to follow.

Apple has indicated to people involved in the negotiations that the service could be announced at its annual developers conference, which begins June 10 in San Francisco.
1:28:58 PM    

  maandag, 22 april 2013

Something's very fishy....

How much are Samsung's dirty tricks hurting Apple's shares?

April 20, 2013: 12:00 PM ET
Conspiracy theories grow after charges it funded agent provocateurs in three countries. Chairman Lee

Chairman Lee

FORTUNE -- There's a somewhat paranoid theory being circulated among Apple (AAPL) investors in the wake of the company's seven-month, $296-billion loss in market value.

It goes something like this:

Revealed as a patent copycat last summer by a California jury's $1.05 billion verdict -- a PR disaster of the first order that shook top management and tarnished the image of an entire nation -- Samsung quietly declared war on Apple.

Drawing on a massive $5.3 billion sales, promotion and marketing budget, the company poured a fortune into a high-profile ad campaign designed to caricature Apple's customers as foolish sheep. Meanwhile at the retail level it paid mobile phone salespeople cash "spiffs" (bonuses) for every smartphone customer they could persuade to choose Samsung over Apple.

Behind the scenes, the company engaged in more surreptitious stratagems. It began paying students and other heavy users of social media to post anonymous messages talking up the virtues of Samsung's products and spreading fear, uncertainty and doubt about Apple and other competitors.

chart_ws_stock_appleinc_2013420112242_240xaMost deviously of all, it took a massive short position in Apple in the U.S. securities markets, putting selling pressure on the stock and tarnishing Apple's once-glowing reputation on Wall Street.

OK, so that last bit is admittedly a stretch and purely speculative. Apple's shares were due to fall of their weight as the company entered several quarters of tighter margins and slower growth.

But the rest of this nightmare fantasy is pretty well-documented fact.

The shocked reaction of Chairman Lee Kun-hee to the California verdict last summer was widely reported in South Korean media. Samsung's marketing budget comes directly from the company's quarterly reports. The anti-Apple ads were aired on prime-time American television. Some of Samsung's spiff rates are posted online. And just this week Samsung's Taiwanese subsidiary admitted that it paid students to post negative comments about rival HTC in its home market. Reports have since surfaced in the U.K. and Sweden that it was engaging in similar practices in those countries.

To be fair, Samsung is a world-class electronics manufacturer and a fierce competitor whose smartphones have steadily improved and increased market share on their own merit.

But the company certainly has pockets deep enough to do real damage to a company it might choose to target by other means. What's not clear is how low it's been willing to go.

2:27:20 PM    

  vrijdag, 19 april 2013

Apple's Calendar Chaos Trade Of 2013

AAPL shifting product release cycle has created a high degree of investor uncertainty within the quarterly biased tradition of Wall Street.

For a company that attracts more product release hype than any other in the history of planet earth, this shifting product release calendar has caused investors and analysts to be mislead regarding the true state of Apple's financial health.

It's a phenomenon unique to Apple because no other company elicits the scope of product release volatility like Apple does. Especially in the most recent upgrade cycle to iPhone 5 in which Apple sold 47.8 million units in the holiday quarter, Apple has demonstrated a one-of-a-kind ability to generate product release hype that remains the envy of all its competition.

Unfortunately for investors, this recent round of hype has not translated into stock returns. The shifting of the product release calendar and its uncertain effect on year over year

Complete Story » By Jason Schwarz. [AAPL - News and Analysis from Seeking Alpha] 3:30:32 PM